Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Candide by Nate Ziefert Essay -- book critique, French satire novella

Candide is a French parody novella originally distributed in 1759 by Gabriel Cramer in Paris, France, and composed by Franã §ois-Marie Arouet, or Voltaire, his nom de plume, a savant of the Age of Enlightenment. This book was picked to show what life resembled in France before the French Revolution and to give a review of the policy centered issues of that period. Perusing the book gave setting to examining different topics, including the significance of reason, the debasement of the congregation, cash and force, disparity, which were all-problems that are begging to be addressed in the timeframe we contemplated. The book was valuable to our course of studies since it itemized what life resembled in France during the center of the eighteenth century and gave setting to what was instructed in class- - for instance debasement by ground-breaking powers in French society, for example, the uncalled for treatment and pay among serfs and their primitive masters. Various recorded occasions lead Voltaire to compose Candide. The first was the distribution of Leibniz's Monadology, an article talking about Leibniz’ reasoning of good faith. Two other authentic occasions, the Seven Years’ War and the 1775 Lisbon seismic tremor, likewise gave motivation to Voltaire. The end of the Leibniz’ piece, Along these lines this is the most ideal all things considered, fills in as the essential reason for Voltaire’s parody. Things were not very great in France, at the ideal opportunity for most of the French individuals and there was very little purpose behind positive thinking. Voltaire dismissed Leibnizian idealism provided that he was in the most ideal all things considered, a deplorable and crushing tremor ought not have happened. Cataclysmic events essentially don't fit into the way of thinking of hopefulness. Voltaire’s perspective is very logicergy goes into the work, and he stops the entirety of his past philosophica l hypothesis. At last, he is content. The content was engaging, yet profoundly doubtful, and gives a decent viewpoint from which to see the way of life and governmental issues of Spain and France in the mid-1700’s. The themesâ€the lip service of religion, the absurdity of good faith, the pointlessness of philosophical theory and the adulterating impact of influence and moneyâ€are communicated in an uncontrollably engaging way. I found the way Voltaire interwove the characters with his topics and utilized parody generally fascinating. He made the characters whose feelings he couldn't help contradicting look like idiots so as to ruin their convictions, and he came to his meaningful conclusions through characters that were affable. Candide was unquestionably worth perusing and pressed in a great deal of history and theory into a quick paced, activity story.

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Cleopatra Study Guide - Important Facts and Timeline

Cleopatra Study Guide - Important Facts and Timeline Study Guides Cleopatra OverviewImportant FactsDiscussion QuestionsWhat Did Cleopatra Look Like?PicturesTimelineTerms Cleopatra (January 69 B.C. - August 12, 30 B.C.) was the last pharaoh of Egypt. Following her demise, Rome took over as leader of Egypt. She was not an Egyptian, notwithstanding, regardless of being pharaoh, yet a Macedonian in the Ptolemaic tradition that a Macedonian Ptolemy I Soter began. Ptolemy was a military head under Alexander the Great and potentially a nearby family member. Cleopatra was one of a few offspring of a relative of this first Ptolemy, Ptolemy XII Auletes. Her two more established sisters were Berenice IV and Cleopatra VI who may have kicked the bucket from the get-go throughout everyday life. Berenice organized an overthrow while Ptolemy Auletes was in power. With Roman support, Auletes had the option to recapture the seat and have his little girl Berenice executed. An Egyptian custom that the Macedonian Ptolemies embraced was for pharaohs to wed their kin. In this way, when Ptolemy XII Auletes kicked the bucket, he left the consideration of Egypt in the hand of Cleopatra (matured around 18) and her more youthful sibling Ptolemy XIII (matured around 12). Ptolemy XIII, impacted by his retainers, constrained Cleopatra to escape from Egypt. She recovered control of Egypt through the assistance of Julius Caesar, with whom she took part in an extramarital entanglements and a child named Caesarion. Following the demise of Ptolemy XIII, Cleopatra wedded a considerably more youthful sibling, Ptolemy XIV. In time, she managed alongside another Ptolemaic male, her child Caesarion. Cleopatra is known best for her relationships with Caesar and Mark Antony, by whom she had three kids, and her self destruction by snake chomp after her better half Antony ended his own life. The passing of Cleopatra shut down Egyptian pharaohs administering Egypt. After Cleopatras self destruction, Octavian assumed responsibility for Egypt, placing it into Roman hands. OverviewDiscussion QuestionsWhat Did Cleopatra Look Like?PicturesTimelineTerms Outline | Important Facts | Discussion Questions | What Did Cleopatra Look Like? | Pictures | Timeline | Terms OverviewImportant FactsStudy QuestionsWhat Did Cleopatra Look Like?PicturesTimelineTerms Study Guide Portray the connection among Octavian and Cleopatra.Why did Caesar not embrace Caesarion as his heir?What gave Rome the privilege to Egypt?Does Cleopatra merit her notoriety for being a seductress?Was Cleopatra a greater amount of an Egyptian or Greek ruler? Book index , altered by Susan Walker and Peter HiggsShakespearesGeorge Bernard Shaws OverviewImportant FactsStudy QuestionsWhat Did Cleopatra Look Like?PicturesTimelineTerms This is a piece of an arrangement (study manage) on the incredible Egyptian sovereign Cleopatra. On this page youll discover fundamental realities like her birthday and names of individuals from her family. The Cleopatra Study Guide: OverviewImportant FactsStudy QuestionsWhat Did Cleopatra Look Like?PicturesTimelineTerms BirthCleopatra was conceived in 69 B.C. in Alexandria, Egypt. She passed on August 12, 30 B.C.Family of OriginShe was a little girl of Pharaoh Ptolemy XII Auletes. Her mom is liable to contest. She may have been the little girl of Cleopatra V Tryphaina, in spite of the fact that Strabo 17.1.11 says just one of the little girls of Ptolemy was authentic, and that not Cleopatra.Cleopatra wedded her more youthful sibling Ptolemy XIII and after his demise, wedded her more youthful sibling Ptolemy XIV. Later she wedded the Roman Mark Antony.ChildrenCleopatra had one child by Caesar, named Caesarion. She had twins with Mark Antony, Alexander Helios and Cleopatra Selene, and later, a child, Ptolemy Philadelphos.Name/TitleShe was really Cleopatra VII, the last pharaoh of Egypt (in spite of the fact that you could contend that job was her children) since Rome assumed responsibility for Egypt following her death.DeathAfter Mark Antony ended it all did as well, Cleopatra. The story is that she t ook an asp to her bosom and let the toxic snake nibble her.AncestorsAlthough her family had embraced Egyptian traditions, such as having pharaohs wed their kin, Cleopatra and her family were truly Macedonians who had gone to Egypt with Alexander the Great. Diagram | Important Facts | Study Questions | What Did Cleopatra Look Like? | Pictures | Timeline | Terms

Monday, August 17, 2020

One Giant Leap

One Giant Leap Im up early. Im up REALLY early, and its not because I stayed up, its because I woke up . . . to go study. Finals are coming up! You see, theres this little class called 2.006 also known as Thermal Fluids Two and its a wee bit difficult. Difficult in that since Friday morning at 7 Ive been studying pretty much non-stop. The final is on Monday, that gives me 1.5 more days to learn everything. The good part? I think Im almost there. I actually think Ill be ready for Monday *crosses fingers* But, I digress. I walked out of the dorm this morning at 6:20 AM. As I ritually do, I check the dome before I head down dorm row towards campus, just because the dome is so visible and Im more likely to see a hack in the morning than in the afternoon or evening. So, step 1, check dome. Step 2, get really excited and head back inside for my camera. Step 3, photograph dome from afar to share on blog. YAY! They put a BUMP on the dome. Obviously, from this distance, whatever was up there wasnt quite as impressive as I think it was supposed to be, so I detoured from my studying route and headed over to Killian. Now, I dont have some fancy SLR or tripod or anything, Ive got a cybershot throw-in-your-pocket camera. BUT it loves taking pictures outside and the digital zoom is pretty good, so Ive got two more pictures for you, one from farther away and then the same picture zoomed in really close. Ive played with the brightness and contrast in order to make things a bit more visible. Ahhhhhhh, ok, I get it now. Its a lunar lander! Apollo 11 probably, since the 40th anniversary is coming up. Yeah, that looks similar! From the distance I could see that white circle above the ladder blinking, so there are at least some onboard electronics. Im guessing theyre not solar powered but it does add a nice touch. So thats that! Happy soon-to-be 40th Birthday Apollo 11, MIT remembers you!

Sunday, May 24, 2020

The Texas Mission Of Mercy - 876 Words

It was not until participating in the Texas Mission of Mercy (TMOM) that I became interested in dentistry. It all started when my best friend convinced me to join American Student Dental Alliance (ASDA) with her. Initially I was hesitant, but I wanted to try to open up and experiment with careers in college. Although I was a member, I was not as active in the organization at first. However, this all changed when I decided to attend the most promoted event of the year, TMOM. TMOM is an annual event that provides free dental care to low income residents in Texas. I observed and assisted dentists and dental students for the first time. One lady, in particular, was physically abused by her husband, and she had many missing front teeth. The dentist was able to repair her smile and give her the smile she deserved. It was an incredible experience being able to witness the transformation of a person’s confidence. TMOM was the turning point of my life because the people I encountered inspired me to pursue dentistry as a career. Another reason why I chose dentistry as a profession is because the connection dentists build with their patients. While I was volunteering at Dentistry from the Heart, an annual event providing free dental treatments, the dentist asked me to try to calm down a crying Vietnamese girl, Ha, as he waited to finish her extraction. I wanted to keep her mind off of the pain, so I spoke to her in Vietnamese about various topics ranging from cartoons to herShow MoreRelatedThe Texas Mission Of Mercy843 Words   |  4 Pages It wasn’t until participating in the Texas Mission of Mercy (TMOM) that I became interested in dentistry. It all started when my best friend convinced me to join American Student Dental Alliance (ASDA) with her. Initially I was hesitant, but I wanted to try to open up and experiment with careers in college. Although I was a member, I was not as active in the organization at first. However, this all changed when I decided to attend the most promoted event of the yea r, TMOM. TMOM is an annual eventRead MoreThe Discovery Of The Alamo1027 Words   |  5 PagesIn 1718 Franciscan built a mission colony that was named New Spain, the missions reason was to convert the neighboring Native to Christianity. The mission was later on abandoned in 1793 and later on was used as a fort by the U.S. army. Stephen F. Austin was born in Virginia in 1793 Stephen was sent to the U.S. to find Volunteers for Texas. In 1821, New Spain gained independence from Spain and later became Mexico. 835, 20,000 people moved to Coahuila and Tejas. The Texans had fought against the MexicansRead MoreAnalysis Of All The Pretty Horses And The Name Of God Is Mercy1430 Words   |  6 PagesMcCarthy, and The Name of God is Mercy, by Pope Francis, explain how fate, freedom, and choice often clash depending on perspective. In All The Pretty Horses, the author shows through two characters, John and the Dueà ±a Alfonsa, that freedom is controllable, but also uncontrollable. In John s jo urney, all he seeks is freedom from the land that confined him, where the Dueà ±a Alfonsa only sees that under the faà §ade of freedom, civilization will collapse. In The Name of God is Mercy, Pope Francis explains howRead MorePersonal Statement : Professional Profile887 Words   |  4 PagesTESOL Certification 2010 LCC Santa Barbara, California Advanced Spanish Language Training 1998 The Baden-Powell Institute, Morelia, Mexico Master of Arts in Theology (GPA: 4.0) 1995 Texas Baptist College, Longview, Texas Bachelors of Arts in Biblical Studies (GPA: 4.0) 1994 Texas Baptist College, Longview, Texas RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE Kindergarten Classroom Teacher | Zenith International Kindergarten | 2011-2012 As a classroom teacher, I taught and managed two different kindergarten classesRead More Hollywood vs. History: The Alamo Essay1557 Words   |  7 Pagestheir bravery and love of their country. Their mission for independence lives on in the hearts of all American’s today. Their legacy lives on forever and their courageous souls are still in the heart of the people of the lone star state. This is the story of bravery, love, tyranny, and liberty. This is the story of the Alamo The battle of the Alamo only spanned an approximate 13 days yet it’s a very critical battle in winning the independence of Texas and helping expand the United States to the westRead MoreExploring Data Sources And Gathering Appropriate Information783 Words   |  4 Pagesinstance, 30 case studies with full-implemented LIB are represented in Table 2. Table 2: 30 Case Studies Utilized LIB. No. Project General Contractor 1 Sutter Medical Center, Castro Valley, CA DPR Construction 2 UHS Texoma Medical Center, Denison, Texas DPR Construction/ Turner Construction Joint Venture 3 Cumberland Hall Hospital, Hopkinsville, Kentucky DPR Construction/ Turner Construction Joint Venture 4 Springwoods Behavioral Health, Fayetteville, Arkansas Brasfield Gorrie 5 USC School of CinematicRead MoreDesert Dogs Medical Surplus Is An Up1431 Words   |  6 PagesIntroduction Desert Dogs Medical Surplus is an up and coming medical surplus company based out of central Texas whose mission is to deliver the best medical supplies and equipment to the best medi-cal facilities around the world. Having a location in central Texas gives Desert Dogs easy access to many major highways and international airports providing the means to transport our customer’s requests in a timely manner. Not only is Desert Dogs equipped to provide products to any hospital or medicalRead MoreThe Family Birthplace : Implementation Of A Discharge Teaching Class2209 Words   |  9 PagesContents Chapter I: Introduction 3 Chapter II: Description of Mercy Ardmore 3 Chapter III: Mission, Philosophy, Structure 5 Chapter IV: Implementing Change Chapter V: Budgeting Chapter VI: Process of Making Decisions and Evaluation Chapter VII: Conclusion References Appendix Appendix A: Mercy Health Ministry Board of Directors Appendix B: Mercy Hospital Ardmore Organizational Chart Appendix C: Mercy Hospital Nursing Organizational Chart The Family Birthplace: ImplementationRead MorePublic Higher Education Funding Budget Drivers760 Words   |  4 Pagesthey had not capped their enrollment, 29, at public regional universities; while 12 reported they had capped enrollment. Of the 12 states that capped enrollment the majority of them were in the most populous states such as California, New York and Texas. Reviewers noted concern over if the community colleges will be able to handle the influx in high school and adult students with universities capping enrollment. Their concern is that it may not. The survey respondents showed disagreement in this areaRead MoreGangs in Prison Essay1447 Words   |  6 Pagesformed by inmates as a way of protecting themselves from the other inmates. These gangs have turned out to be violent and thus posing a threat to security. This paper will have a look at the different gangs in prisons, their history, beliefs and missions, and the differences and similarities in these gangs. The Aryan Brotherhood The Aryan Brotherhood started in 1964 was founded by Tyler Bingham and Barry Mills who were white supremacists and Irish American bikers. It started at the San Quentin

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

What Makes A Society Work Together - 2117 Words

Civilization is what makes a society work together in a stable environment. It takes hard work and different constituents to make civilization happen. The evolution of society does not happen right away but it does happen within ages. The first matter that should happen is systematic agriculture. Society needs to feel food insecure. Once they have found a place that food surplus occurs then they can start the urbanization process. Once urbanization has started and a population is formed then a government will be established. Usually the one who has created the town has the main authority, sometimes not. Because of the government wanting to protect their town, the government will then build up a military and make laws. Society and the government will find trade routes, so that the people can get what they want, whether it is silk or jewelry. To pay for these materialistic items, coinage will need to be made as well. This will made through metallurgy. Society will then find a way to p lace themselves on a social hierarchy. The social hierarchy will establish a balance for civilization. Then there is culture, architecture, and religion. Of course none of these ideas can happen without having a language or writing. More than anything having a government, trade routes, and religion are the key components that really pushes civilization forward onto a much more advance level. Before civilization occur, the world had people roaming around hunting and gathering, also known as theShow MoreRelatedNVQ Business studies1456 Words   |  6 Pagesï » ¿OCR Business and Administration NVQ (QCF) UNIT 203 Title Work in a business environment Level 2 Credit 2 1.1 Describe what is meant by diversity and why it should be valued? Diversity should be respected and valued, because nobody is completely the same as anyone else. It is everywhere in our lives which makes rich and varied. In our lives diversity can be defined as differences in heritage, race, beliefs, customs, mental capabilities, physical appearances etc. It should be valuedRead MoreMarxist Theory And Its Impact On Society934 Words   |  4 Pagesthat society is based upon ‘conflicts of interest’. They believe that the most important conflict is between the Bourgeoisies and the Proletariats. The bourgeoisies are the capitalist class that own most of society’s means and productions. Whereas the proletariats are the working class people. Social class is used to explain how and why societies change. Class conflict is where change occurs through the opposition of the social classes as what they see to be collective interests in society. HoweverRead MoreBiography Of Karl Marx s Writing On Class Conflict1335 Words   |  6 Pagesoci ety is told that through hard work and dedication anyone can become successful. Success in the United States is looked at as being a part of the elite. Though it may seem like the status may easily be reached, this is not, in fact the case. Karl Marx’s writing on class conflict suggest otherwise. Class conflict is still very relevant in present day’s society and can be seen throughout the levels of class. In today’s society you can see class conflict in the way that working class is under paidRead MoreRelationship Between An Individual And Society1400 Words   |  6 Pagesand society is that individuals make up society by their exchange of different goods such as: materials, women, and services. Humans need their society, and each society has its own way of creating it. The exchange of materials is important in many societies where the material from one group with in society to another is how they relate. Instead of materials being important, there are some cultures who’s models of kinship trade women from family to family in order to make a complete society. ThereRead MoreHow Can We Define Society?1149 Words   |  5 PagesSociety can be considered as a community who work together and make decisions about how to do things. It can be seen as a union of people who have a developed culture. Yet this can be seen as controversial because some societies in todays world can be seen as primitive as they have not yet developed some of the vita l things what we call the norm in society like culture. But for what we see as normal way not somewhere else. There are many different people or communities which have different waysRead MoreFrom The Frying Pan Into The Fire1611 Words   |  7 Pageseconomy and technology have been changed in many ways. Development of technology allows people to be in the industrial society, and capitalism takes an important position as an economic system. In order to develop technology, efficiency is necessary. Because of this reason, capitalism also focuses on efficiency seeking to make more profits. As the coming of technology and capitalism society develop the modernity in daily life, efficiency seeking is not only required at the public level but also in theRead MoreIdeal Society1408 Words   |  6 Pagesviews on what an ideal society should be like. Society is defined as a body of individuals living as members of a community. Many scholars and well known authors like Dr. Martin Luther Kin g Jr. and Thomas More express those ideas through public speaking or literary examples delivered to society. Although those ideas are just one person’s opinion about the subject matter. Others believe in the power of God and the belief that the world was created by him, which in turn developed societies amongstRead MoreSimilarities Between The Truman Show And Animal Farm1717 Words   |  7 Pagesout amongst a society? What balance of power can result in a beautiful utopia? How can we all lead a good life without stripping others of their own? The answers to these questions must be known if we want to lead a good, functioning society today and the answers can be found in the book, Animal Farm, written by George Orwell and the movie, The Truman Show, directed by Peter Weir. Both fictional stories help us understand where we need to set boundaries in our lives and how to work in harmony withRead MoreSociological Characters In Disney Film : A Bugs Life970 Words   |  4 Pagesf or the grass hoppers by spilling it over the edge into water, he uses sociological imagination to try and become a hero and right his wrongs. Sociological imagination is the awareness of the relationship between personal experience and the wider society. Flik uses sociological imagination by volunteering to do something no one of his kind has ever done before, leave the island. Flik offers to venture into the real bug world and find a group of big, strong warrior bugs capable of fighting of HopperRead MoreWalt Whitman s View On The Socio Political Conditions Of Modernity1685 Words   |  7 PagesLangston Hughes’s view on the socio-political conditions of modernity What is a modern poem? What modern poets write in a society that is running very fast through the latest technologies? In a machinery time, modern poets write in new manner with new social subjects. They just cannot write about trees, river, cattle, and other natural resources. Their poems are now soak up with the essences of machines, and their effects on the society. Otherwise modern poetry cannot exit in today’s busy world. Two modern

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

What is Bayesian Thinking Free Essays

It is common knowledge that human beings commit errors in judgment all the time. In areas of uncertainty, most of us go with our gut intuition, and in most cases this intuition turns out to be wrong. Much of this is derived from the fact that humans are poor statistical thinkers, and thus poor Bayesian thinkers. We will write a custom essay sample on What is Bayesian Thinking? or any similar topic only for you Order Now What is Bayesian thinking? Let us start with an illustrative example, called the Monty Hall problem — famously depicted in the Kevin Spacey movie â€Å"21.† There are three doors, and behind each door is either a goat or a car. There will always be two doors with goats and one door with a car. The player first chooses a door without opening, and the game show host whose interests are opposed to the player, proceeds to open a different door. Since the host knows what is behind each door, he always opens a door with a goat. Now that the player is left with the initially chosen door and another closed door, the host offers an opportunity to switch to the other unopened door. Should the player switch? The answer for an intuitive Bayesian, a purely statistical thinker, should be easy. Unfortunately, human beings are not intuitive Bayesians. In fact, most people answer that it doesn’t matter if the player switches or not, since the probability of winning a car is 50% between the two doors anyways. They would be wrong. Now, before we examine the correct way to think about this problem, one might ask, so what? Why does it matter if humans are not intuitive Bayesians, or even more broadly, bad statistical thinkers? Simply, Bayesian reasoning corrects some of the issues with bad statistical thinking. Bad statistical thinking leads to bad judgments and decisions, which have a wide variety of consequences in everyday life as well as in arenas such as politics and science. Thus, everyone should become better Bayesian thinkers, because under uncertainty, accurate probabilistic judgments are useful and important.To give a accurate depiction of how Bayesian reasoning works, let us return to the Monty Hall problem, and examine why not only switching doors matters, but that it is beneficial to switch. When the host first opened the door with the goat, something happened: opening the door gave the player extra information, and thus changed the probability of outcomes. By utilizing this extra information, it is no longer a 50% chance for the player to win the car after switching doors, but a ~67% (2/3) chance. Let us suppose that the player picks the door which contains the car. The host opens either the first goat door or the second (it does not matter), and the player switches to the other goat door and loses. Now, suppose the player picks the first goat door instead, which means the host is forced to open the second goat door. Since the only other door contains the car, the player switches and wins. Lastly, suppose the player picks the second goat door. The host is forced to open the first goat door, which again, means the player will win the car after a switch. These are the only three possible scenarios, and so we see that the probability of winning is two out of three if the player switches. Conversely, what if the player doesn’t switch? In the first scenario, the player wins the car, but in scenarios two and three, the player obviously loses. Thus, to not switch is to have only a 33% (1/3) chance to win the car.The Monty Hall problem is a rather simple illustration of how Bayesian reasoning works, so in order to gain a more complete understanding, we must explore its principles. In 1763, a paper by Reverend Thomas Bayes was published posthumously called â€Å"An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances,† and brought about a paradigmatic shift in statistics: by using ever-increasing information and experience, one can gradually approach the unknown or understand the unknown (of course, his main motive was to prove the existence of God). Fundamentally, Bayesian reasoning believes in the correction of probabilities over time, and that all probabilities are merely estimates of the likelihood of events to occur. Through the further efforts of mathematicians like Lagrange in perfecting the Bayesian framework, we now have a modern and complete theory of probability. First, there are what we call priors, which is the strength of our beliefs, or put it another way, the likelihood that we are to change our beliefs. Then, we have our posteriors, which is the empirical aspect, or the influx of new information. The Bayesian framework then takes these two components and mathematically analyzes how posteriors affect priors. If we know nothing about an event, then all we can do is estimate a probability. However, if there is new information, then the probability must be corrected based on this new information. Over time, as experiences grow through more information, these estimates of probabilities will eventually fit â€Å"reality.† In the Monty Hall case, the moment the the host opened the goat door, that influx of new information, or change in posteriors, immediately influences the player’s priors. If the host doesn’t open a door, the player merely has a 33% chance to win the car between the three doors, and switching makes no difference. However, since the host removes a door, and specifically the door that contains a goat, these two new posteriors directly influence the original prior from 33% to 66%. One might think that this method of thinking is mysteriously similar to the scientific method, which is certainly true. However, To put it another way, Bayesian thinking is how to use some known information or experience to judge or predict the unknown. For example, event A is â€Å"rainy tomorrow† and event B is â€Å"cloudy tonight†. If you see cloudy tonight, what is the probability of raining tomorrow? If you use the Bayes theorem directly, you only need to know the probability of raining every day, the probability of cloudy nightly, and if one day it rains, then the probability of the cloudy night of the previous night will be substituted into the formula and done. The question is, where do these probabilities come from, and how do we infer the possibility based on the information we have . In fact, most of the valuable problems are backward problems, for example: the stock market, through those few signs can be judged to be a more or less opportunity; the hospital, through which symptoms can determine what is the disease; science Research, through several experimental data, you can construct what theory to explain the model and so on. In general, mathematicians, physicists, etc. are all about backward problems, or they can not predict or judge the outcome with few signs or phenomena, and there is no value (by the way, do not know the reverse Problem-thinking people can not fight in the financial market or the stock market. At present, the most advanced research in the speculative market is almost a process of backward stochastic process and martingale theory. It is known that the incidence of a disease is 0.001, that is, 1 in 1,000 people is sick. There is a reagent that can test whether a patient is sick or not, and its accuracy is 0.99, which means that 99% of the patients may be positive when the patient really gets sick. Its false positive rate is 5%, which means that 5% of the patients may get positive if they do not get sick. There is a positive test result of a patient, what is the probability that he does get sick?We got a staggering result of about 0.019. In other words, even if the test is positive, the probability of getting sick is only increased from 0.1% to 2%. This is the so-called â€Å"false positive†, that is, the positive result is not enough to show that the patient is sick.Why is this? Why is the accuracy of this test up to 99%, but the credibility is less than 2%? The answer is related to its false positive rate. Here we see the power of the Bayesian theorem, that it allows us to deduce the unknown probability from the known probability and the information at hand.The human brain and quantification vs heuristic thinking. The advantage of Bayesian analysis is that it does not require any objective estimation, just guess a priori casually. This is the key, because most of the events that occur in the real world have no objective probability. This is actually very similar to the scientific method: we did not know anything from the beginning, but we are willing to experiment and gradually find out the laws of nature. Bayesian reasoning operates in the same way, through continually the posterior probability in accordance with existing experimental data. Biggest problem with Bayesian reasoning is that human brains cannot quantify information easily. The most commonly raised example is Malcolm Gladwell’s â€Å"Outliers†, where many people who are trained enough in certain low-chaotic environments make correct decisions and judgments without using the Bayesian framework at all. Firefighters, for example, do not undergo a Bayesian calculus before deciding whether or not it’s safe to pull a child out of a burning building. They just do it because they’ve done it many times before, and have a rough heuristic estimate on the safety of such an action. Similarly, chess players do not use Bayesian analysis to think many turns ahead; what research has found is that through thousands of hours of practice and becoming familiar and experienced with similar setpieces in the past, gives them an ability to predict moves assuming that the opposing player is also rational. Conversely, high chaotic environments, such as the political sphere, is where Bayesian reasoning thrives due to the high amount of uncertainty.The other criticism are from the frequentists. In general, the probability of teaching in school can be called frequencyism. An event, if performed repeatedly multiple times independently, dividing the number of occurrences by the number of executions yields a frequency. For example, throwing coins, throwing 10000 times, 4976 times positive, the frequency is 0.4976. Then if the implementation of many many, the frequency will tend to a fixed value, is the probability of this time. In fact, to prove it involves the central limit theorem, but it does not start. How to cite What is Bayesian Thinking?, Papers

Monday, May 4, 2020

Cyber Crime Ashley Madison

Question: Discuss about theCyber Crimefor Ashley Madison. Answer: Introduction A crime which is conducted with the help of a computer and a network is defined as a cyber crime. It is basically damage of any kind done to an individual or an organization purposely with a sole motive of causing harm both financially as well as mentally to the victims. As per a report sponsored by McAfee, the damage caused globally due to these cyber attacks are as much as $445 Billion whereas Microsoft claims that the damage is much more than the quoted figures. As per a recent research conducted by Juniper it is expected that the said loss may aggravate to 2.1 Trillion in three years time. The said report talks about the cyber crime that took place at Ashley Madison in the year 2015. The said company provides online dating service and social networking service for those in the crowd who are married or engaged or committed into a relationship. The said companys motto is simple Life is short, Have an affair. It was founded in the year 2002 but came to limelight a year ago when the said companys data got hacked and all the vital information with regards its customers got stolen such as their name, address, sexual fantasies and credit card details. The hackers were known as The Impact Team who circulated 40MB of confidential data that was stolen from Avid Life Media (ALM) a company that owns this website and other such services. They threatened the companys CEO to shut down the said website else they would leak al the confidential data. The report also discusses about how the said crime was dealt with by the company and what steps it took to safeguard its position in publi c[1]. Further to this it also mentions the loss the company had to face, financially, mentally as well as reputational. Argument and Analysis The Impact Team, as is called by the hackers to themselves were the ones who hacked the entire data base of Ashley Madison The leakage of the sensitive information in public had a great and irreversible impact on not only the company but also those whose data were released. As the name suggests, the attackers had a great impact on the personal lives of millions of people associated with the said website. The team had a dual motive to satisfy. Firstly the team had been condemning the very operation of the site to help fix up an extramarital affair between committed and married people. Secondly, is the business practice of Ashley Madison wherein it asks its customers to pay $19 if they want all the sensitive data to be erased from their data bank but as was revealed later all the information was not erased[2]. On July 15, 2015, the team made the attack official and threatened the company that if it did not close down Ashley Madison and Established Men, then it would publicise the data. The website has never verified the emails of those who created their profile and generally the users created fake mail ids Annalee Newitz found that only 12000 of the women accounts out of the 5.5 million registered with AM were used often. Further to this it was also discovered that most of the accounts of women were fake since they were created from the same IP address thus this shows that the companys security system was never too strong[3]. Further to this the hack proved that the company was cheating upon its members. Avid Life Media received $1.7 million every year from its members for deleting their accounts but the said hack revealed that the said was a fake as it ended up leaking data of those also who had paid money for deletion of their accounts. The said hack led to targeting members who were celebrities in various fields by planning to leak their data publicly and embarrass them . The biggest loophole from the companys point of view was the fact that it had extorted huge amounts from its members but did not deliver what it promised. This led to a reputational loss of the company but at the same time had impacted the personal lives of those who had paid to delete their data to the company as well. I feel it a matter of ethics here wherein the company has been performing unethically to rake in money wherein the member has not been granted the right to delete the account. Further to this such sites have led to breakage of trust on the networking business and hence many other companys who are genuine had to face the brunt as well[4]. Impact of The Cyber Crime The said crime had financial as well as psychological implications. Although the attackers had no financial gain intention behind such a big scandal. Ashley Madisons holding company, Avid Life Media ended up losing over a quarter of revenue as customers stopped registering themselves. The actual loss in value terms is yet to be revealed but the same would have been huge since the company has offered a prize money of $500000 (Canadian) to the person who would provide information with regards the hackers and help in their arrest. Apart from that the business firm is strangled into law suits worth $576 million by the users who had suffered due to the said hack[5]. Apart from the above mentioned financial losses, the attackers ruined the lives of many individuals. Trust was broken, relationships were smashed, reputational loss as well as some even lost their jobs due to the same. People who were exposed had to suffer extortion and blackmailing. The worst impact was suicides committed due to the said hack. It was always understood that cyber crimes which led to leakage of information would result in shutting down of the business, remediation as well as restitution but the outcomes of this case was even more devastating. This crime basically was an eye opener for those who had spent their hard earned money in such sites and also for those who would have probably thought of registering oneself in the near future[6]. The Impact Team in a way made the public realise that these sites should not be trusted in totality even if they are being paid a premium for deletion of sensitive information. Red Flags of the Ashley Madison Cyber Crime The said crime has widened the gap between an idealistic society and the reality. The capitalist ideology is all about meeting a person, trusting and falling in love with the person, getting married and planning a family and further nurturing them into a family. However it is all a myth rightly proven by the Impact Team. Secondly the concept of such a business idea and its success is all due to its popularity ad acceptability by the society as a whole, thus the company is alone not to be blamed for the same. Thirdly, this cyber crime has made people aware that their sensitive data should never be shared on trust as the company although had taken money for deletion of the account yet the same got hacked and caused devastating effects, some of which are irreplaceable such as a loss of life[7]. Action Taken By Avid Life Media (Alm) Five days after the first outburst of the crime, ALM had made an official announcement that it was an attempt made by an unauthorised individual who crept into their system illegally. The company is working upon the same with the law enforcement agencies so as to catch the criminals of the said attack. It also has said that the members can now delete their personal data on their own without any charge[8]. But unfortunately when after a months notice from the attackers the company did not shut down the two stated websites, the attackers released the information on the dark web. However ALM immediately gave an official statement that it working upon the said attack so as to counter attack the hackers. Further since there were loads of law suits filed but with hidden names[9], ALM requested the court to dismiss cases where the actual identity of the plaintiffs was hidden. Recommendations On analysing the details of the entire case it is understood that one should be very careful before being lured towards such websites as the business firms are encouraged to launch such business ideas due to the demand of the society. The company is alone not to be blamed and this case is a sheer case of mistrust and unethical move both by the company as well as the members. Respect and trust is what is most desirable in a society so as to nurture in a healthy manner. My recommendations are for both the members as well as such companies both. For the former my suggestion would be that cheating onto a relationship and then loosing on life is no fun and that life is precious and should be led with respect. Even if the same would not have been hacked but leaked through some other source even then the consequences would have to be faced by not only the victim but also the people related to that victim. From the companys point of view, my suggestion would be that launching such dating sit es is not illegal even though unethical but at the same time promising something false to the members is unethical. Further such companies should tighten their computer security and review the same frequently so as to be able to safeguard the members sensitive data[10]. The hackers have not done it for financial gain but they have done it to teach a lesson not only to the company but also the members who have posted a very clean image of the self to the world at large. Conclusion The said cyber attack though seems to be a criminal offence from the view point of Ashley Madison yet the same has ensured revelation of the fact that the companys policies and business practices are unethical in nature and needs a revisit. The Impact Teams leakage of data as affected the married or relationship status of its members so much that it even took many lives and resulted in many divorces as well. The said scandal impacted the lives of millions across the globe and not just a small group of individuals. The said crime is defined as the most expensive one of the decade since it lead to not only monetary losses but also losses of lives, relations and most importantly trust. The company even though proclaim of the fact that the said crime is still a criminal offence conducted by the hackers yet the same cannot be denied that the said attack has disclosed many unethical secrets of the business firm as well. It has made people understand no website is fully secured. The same ca me as a big shock to the society as well as many could see the gap between a capitalist society and the reality of the situation widen. People whose data or name was not leaked were also under the purview of questions since the world is seen loosing on the trust. Because of the same the innocent also got wrapped up in the arena of doubts by their spouses or better halves. References: Basu, E., Cybersecurity Lessons Learned From the Ashley Madison Hack, The Forbes, 26 October 2015, https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericbasu/2015/10/26/cybersecurity-lessons-learned-from-the-ashley-madison-hack/2/#68a7509b6890 , (accessed 25th October 2016) Callan, P., Ashley Madison hack: Costly end of the affair, [Website], 2015, https://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/24/opinions/callan-ashley-madison-hack/, (accessed 25th October 2016) Griffiths, J., One year after he Ashley Madison hack, members and their partners reveal the traumatic impact its had on their relationships , The Sun, 01 September 2016, https://fortune.com/2016/04/20/ashley-madison-data-breach-lawsuit-names/, (accessed 25th October 2016) Hackett, R., What to know about the Ashley Madison hack, Fortune, 26 August 2015, https://fortune.com/2015/08/26/ashley-madison-hack/ (accessed 25th October 2016) Lamont, T., Life after the Ashley Madison affair , The Guardian, 28 February 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/28/what-happened-after-ashley-madison-was-hacked, (accessed 25th October 2016) Mason, J and A. Sharp, Hackers Ashley Madison data dump threatens marriages, reputations, [Website], 2015, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ashleymadison-cybersecurity-idUSKCN0QN2BN20150819, (accessed 25th October 2016) Newton, C., The mind-blending messiness of the Ashley Madison data dump, The Verge, 19 August 2015, https://www.theverge.com/2015/8/19/9178855/ashley-madison-data-breach-implications, (accessed 25th October 2016) Rosenthal, B., The Ashley Madison Hack One year Later, [Website], 2016, https://logicaloperations.com/insights/blog/2016/07/20/405/the-ashley-madison-hack-one-year-later/, (accessed 25th October 2016) Ward, M., Ashley Madison : Who are the hackers behind the attack? BBC News, 20 August 2015, https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34002053 (accessed 25th October 2016) Yadron, D., Hackers Target Users of Infidelity Website Ashley Madison The Wall Street Journal 2015, https://www.wsj.com/articles/affair-website-ashley-madison-hacked-1437402152, (accessed 25th October 2016)